The main aim of the Project is to contribute to build very high-resolution ensemble systems in Europe, resolving the convection-permitting scale phenomena.
The main objectives are to:
A. Develop new products and methodologies for calibration of LAM ensembles for extremes and probabilistic prediction of thunderstorms and fog:
1) Inventory of existing methods and SW already developed by the Members and literature review;
2) Define and develop new products and methodologies for computation/elaboration:
· calibration of ensembles, mainly for extremes (wind, precipitation, temperature,…);
· products for probabilistic prediction of thunderstorms (clear benefit, link with research, link with EMMA), fog.
B. Understanding the sensitivity of ensemble prediction systems to soil conditions and PBL and their effect on the prediction of selected phenomena (fog and thunderstorms)
1) Investigating sensitivity of models to soil moisture and PBL;
2) Investigating the ratio of sensitivity to different sources of surface and upper air uncertainty at the CP scale.
"verbatim to complete"
The content of the requirements for the EUMETNET SRNWP-EPS Phase II (EPS-II) has a main aim: to contribute to build very high-resolution ensemble systems in Europe, resolving the convection-permitting scale phenomena. To reach this aim, the usual coordination within C-SRNWP was not enough, since dedicated meetings should be organized, where status and plans of the participants are revised and where an agreement on the ground for cooperation should be found.
The main open issues for scientific research on this subject are outlined and described in the document: “Explore the scientific methodologies suitable to build a very high-resolution ensemble” which is the Delivery 3 of the Phase I SRNWP-EPS Activity; the document was prepared by the Expert Team on EPS of the EUMETNET C-SRNWP Program. The aim of this document is to provide scientific and methodological basis for planning future work on the field; it includes a scope of topics larger than those covered by the phase II requirements.
These requirements will help to identify few tasks which can be accomplished within a limited amount of time and with a dedicated amount of resources, leading to clear and tangible outcomes such as coexistence of both operational and (focused) research activities, in order to satisfy the different needs of the NMSs. Therefore, the topics which have been identified for this Phase II requirements focus on all-the-steps-towards-the-development of a methodology for the probabilistic prediction of severe weather phenomena (e.g. thunderstorms and fog), relevant for the operational duties of the NMSs.
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AEMET – Agencia Estatal de Meterologia – Spanish Agency of Meteorology – www.aemet.es
ARPA-SIMC – Agencia Regionale de Protezione Ambientale – Servicio Idro Meteo Climate – www.arpae.it/sim/
USAM / CNMCA – Ufficio Generale Spazio Aereo e Meteorologia / Centro Nazionale di Meteorologia e Climatologia Aeronautica – www.meteoam.it